Tue, Apr 23, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 29 | 05 | 221 |
| NJD | 212 | 19 | 03 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:55NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 17:36NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:36NJDSteve SullivanPPGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Ilya Kovalchuk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 6:33MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Raphael Diaz, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 19:39MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:23MTLRene Bourque: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:10NJDDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:43MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32NJDMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:29MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:39MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:09NJDMarek Zidlicky: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Ryder – Plekanec7:03
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:07
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk4:11
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Galchenyuk7:58
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban13:27
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Markov – Weber10:43
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban2:27
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac9:31
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov8:29
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Zubrus – Josefson9:01
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter7:21
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky13:38
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold3:58
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:07
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).