Tue, Apr 23, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 29 | 111 | 327 |
| WSH | 213 | 218 | 110 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:53WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 0:16WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 14:11WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:48WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Erskine · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:34WSHMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 11:50WPGNik AntropovAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:31WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12WSHJohn Erskine: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21WSHAaron Volpatti: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:29WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P3 14:44WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:38WSHJohn Erskine: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:38WPGEric Tangradi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:17
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Thorburn – Gagnon2:53
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Tangradi – Wright – Burmistrov3:33
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Santorelli – Kane5:08
xG 0.05–0.54 (9%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Postma3:47
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Stuart – Clitsome3:17
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Meech – Byfuglien18:02
xG 0.44–0.83 (35%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Fehr – Perreault11:31
xG 1.22–0.17 (88%)attempts 18–3goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:34
xG 1.21–0.50 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti8:50
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Erat – Brouwer11:48
xG 0.55–0.19 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Oleksy12:25
xG 1.69–0.23 (88%)attempts 29–7goals 1–2
- Green – Alzner19:51
xG 1.24–0.50 (71%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson16:02
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).