Tue, Apr 23, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 114 | 111 | 03 | 0 | 339 |
| CAR | 210 | 110 | 07 | 05 | 2 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:04NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Mark Streit, Matt Moulson · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:20CARJordan StaalAssists: Jay Harrison, Jiri Tlusty · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 7:34NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 17:45CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jordan Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:59NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. CAR Riley Nash scored
- 3. NYI Brad Boyes stopped
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:35CARAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:49CARAlexander Semin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:13
xG 1.87–0.54 (78%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas7:47
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares12:59
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner11:10
xG 0.65–0.58 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic18:21
xG 1.42–0.35 (80%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:42
xG 1.26–0.84 (60%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Streit – Visnovsky2:11
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Blanchard – Skinner7:58
xG 0.66–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Semin – Wallace – Nash2:21
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Staal10:16
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:56
xG 0.29–1.72 (14%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – McBain9:26
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Corvo – Harrison15:29
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti3:40
xG 0.07–0.46 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).