Tue, Apr 23, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 011 | 117 | 241 |
| PHI | 18 | 213 | 29 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40PHIScott HartnellUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 4:54BOSWade ReddenAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 11:24PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 11:31PHIOliver LauridsenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 5:33PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 8:20BOSDavid KrejciUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 8:33PHISimon GagneAssists: Claude Giroux, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:47BOSDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:41BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:40PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:47BOSCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:54PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:05PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:01PHISimon Gagne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Seguin4:27
xG 1.04–0.16 (86%)attempts 12–1goals 1–1
- Jagr – Kelly – Soderberg6:12
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:06
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic7:13
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid11:38
xG 1.50–0.53 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Redden – Seidenberg13:29
xG 1.50–0.82 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 2–2
- Chara – Hamilton12:33
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 15–5goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Giroux – Voracek11:58
xG 0.68–0.59 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Couturier10:46
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Hall – Fedotenko – Rosehill7:53
xG 0.01–0.68 (2%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read10:58
xG 0.78–2.29 (25%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Lauridsen15:52
xG 0.92–0.75 (55%)attempts 18–19goals 3–0
- Lilja – Gustafsson16:00
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Foster – Manning12:43
xG 0.49–2.38 (17%)attempts 8–23goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).