Tue, Apr 23, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 14 | 011 | 226 |
| SJS | 113 | 011 | 213 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53SJSRaffi TorresPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Martin Havlat · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 14:32DALAntoine RousselAssists: Cody Eakin, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 0:17DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ray Whitney · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 14:23SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brad Stuart, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 14:53SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:00DALTom Wandell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:58DALCody Eakin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48SJSScott Hannan: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:28SJSBrad Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00DALStephane Robidas: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:41
xG 0.97–0.19 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn15:37
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Smith – Eakin – Garbutt2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Wandell – Smith – MacDermid2:49
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon19:38
xG 1.81–0.67 (73%)attempts 25–16goals 1–1
- Robidas – Daley17:10
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 20–31goals 0–1
- Rome – Larsen10:06
xG 0.15–0.96 (13%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Pavelski – Wingels8:15
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Couture11:37
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins5:29
xG 0.51–0.94 (35%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin4:33
xG 0.65–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:00
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Hannan – Boyle2:42
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).