Wed, Apr 24, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 04 | 18 | 012 | 124 |
| DET | 013 | 113 | 210 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:28LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:32DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 5:42DETJordin TootooGWGAssists: Patrick Eaves, Brendan Smith · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 13:34DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:41LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:51DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24DETValtteri Filppula: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:39DETValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27LAKRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06LAKJeff Carter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:44LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Carter – Richardson12:53
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – Clifford11:29
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Richards – Kopitar – Toffoli9:46
xG 0.46–0.78 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Fraser – King – Nolan7:47
xG 0.05–0.61 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov14:49
xG 1.03–0.83 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Greene – Muzzin12:14
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty15:32
xG 0.29–0.89 (24%)attempts 5–24goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Eaves – Emmerton5:25
xG 0.57–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Brunner8:38
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:13
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Franzen11:48
xG 0.31–1.02 (23%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:09
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Quincey – Smith13:04
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Quincey – Kindl2:36
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).