Wed, Apr 24, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 07 | 214 | 430 |
| EDM | 111 | 02 | 09 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:50EDMNail YakupovAssists: Mark Fistric, Shawn Horcoff · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 8:11CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Michal Handzus, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 4:36CHIJohnny OduyaAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Handzus · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:18CHIPatrick SharpENAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:07CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:06EDMJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40EDMMark Fistric: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:17CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:39CHIMichal Rozsival: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:21CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Sharp – Kane6:10
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – LeBlanc6:07
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – LeBlanc3:45
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hossa – Toews – Saad9:25
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson14:17
xG 1.21–0.56 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Leddy11:11
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Oduya13:48
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Hartikainen – Lander8:20
xG 0.63–0.43 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Smithson – Brown8:00
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall13:26
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
- Horcoff – Paajarvi – Yakupov7:48
xG 0.11–1.05 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Fistric2:05
xG 0.48–0.10 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Potter – Fistric12:12
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry11:57
xG 0.55–0.91 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).