Wed, Apr 24, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 110 | 013 | 134 |
| PHX | 216 | 011 | 05 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56PHXMichael StoneAssists: Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:52PHXKeith YandlePPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:31SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:22SJSMatt Tennyson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:50SJSAdam Burish: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:20SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:23PHXMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:42SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture11:50
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Sheppard7:08
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Torres – Pavelski – Wingels11:12
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Tennyson4:50
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stuart6:24
xG 0.14–0.01 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin4:36
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Conner11:33
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Chipchura5:00
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal10:58
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker11:17
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko11:49
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:20
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Klesla – Stone15:45
xG 0.74–0.85 (47%)attempts 17–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).