Thu, Apr 25, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 016 | 112 | 11 | 438 |
| CAR | 011 | 24 | 12 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19NYRDerek StepanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:52NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Carl Hagelin, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 4:51CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:51CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Kevin Westgarth · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:49CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 17:03NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Taylor Pyatt · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:55NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:33NYRMatt Gilroy: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:54NYRMatt Gilroy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P2 18:17CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:12CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Hagelin – Stepan15:00
xG 1.12–0.30 (79%)attempts 26–8goals 1–1
- Richards – Nash – Zuccarello4:20
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Zuccarello8:57
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Clowe – Nash – Brassard6:27
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:37
xG 1.26–0.08 (94%)attempts 24–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto3:18
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto13:39
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 21–9goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Staal9:23
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Blanchard – Skinner3:49
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Westgarth3:41
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Wallace – Skinner7:22
xG 0.12–0.43 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Faulk2:57
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti10:10
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Harrison – McBain6:02
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).