Thu, Apr 25, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 15 | 07 | 218 |
| NJD | 012 | 17 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52PITMatt CookeAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brandon Sutter · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 14:01PITJussi JokinenPPAssists: Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:33NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Patrik Elias, Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:01NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:50NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Steve Sullivan, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:39NJDJohan Hedberg: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 3:52PITJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:14NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34PITBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:15NJDRyan Carter: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Adams won the faceoff against Loktionov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Morrow – Sutter8:46
xG 1.02–0.37 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Adams – Glass – Kennedy8:07
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Malkin – Bennett10:59
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Jokinen – Kunitz10:20
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Niskanen15:02
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Letang – Despres3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Engelland – Despres12:23
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac12:16
xG 0.93–0.67 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Kovalchuk – Loktionov2:10
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Gionta – Carter9:49
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Zubrus – Josefson5:45
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky15:47
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:05
xG 0.38–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:20
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).