Thu, Apr 25, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 25 | 01 | 417 |
| FLA | 05 | 013 | 016 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39TORLeo KomarovGWGAssists: Jay McClement, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:32TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Matt Frattin, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–0
- P2 1:41TORPhil KesselAssists: Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 4:41TORPhil KesselAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P2 15:35TORMark Fraser: Holding2 min
- P2 18:50FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50TORMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50TORMark Fraser: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 18:50FLAFilip Kuba: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09TORClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:46TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:46TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:46FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Frattin – Colborne10:35
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Kadri11:05
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – van Riemsdyk9:33
xG 0.26–0.33 (43%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Komarov8:53
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Kostka13:14
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Franson – Fraser13:45
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Kostka3:51
xG 0.02–0.09 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestParros – Shore – Howden7:53
xG 0.77–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Goc – Fleischmann – Huberdeau12:08
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Upshall – Skille – Matthias10:02
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Mueller – Bjugstad8:53
xG 0.02–0.68 (2%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Petrovic3:21
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kuba – Weaver9:10
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Campbell – Petrovic10:23
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).