Thu, Apr 25, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 06 | 07 | 222 |
| DET | 112 | 313 | 113 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46NSHMike FisherAssists: Rich Clune, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:53DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Johan Franzen, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:30NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–1
- P2 1:01DETJohan FranzenAssists: Damien Brunner, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 3:41DETPatrick EavesGWGAssists: Jordin Tootoo · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 19:13DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 16:01DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:46DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:14DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min
- P1 14:31NSHCraig Smith: Diving2 min
- P1 18:57NSHNick Spaling: Holding2 min
- P2 7:36DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47NSHRich Clune: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:32NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Clune – Smith7:37
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Bang4:43
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Spaling – Butler – Bang2:14
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Henderson – Halischuk4:18
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:08
xG 1.24–0.89 (58%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
- Gill – Blum9:57
xG 0.11–0.37 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Klein – Bartley13:11
xG 0.18–0.79 (18%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Filppula – Franzen10:02
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader10:12
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Eaves – Emmerton7:53
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Brunner7:26
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – DeKeyser10:06
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:32
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl2:51
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).