Thu, Apr 25, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 111 | 311 | 430 |
| WPG | 15 | 19 | 011 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10WPGJames WrightAssists: Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 9:54MTLRene BourqueAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 14:43WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P3 2:07MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lars Eller, Jarred Tinordi · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 7:57MTLDavid DesharnaisPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 10:50MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:04MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 10:36WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:02MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:21WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:18WPGChris Thorburn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:27WPGAaron Gagnon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:18WPGMark Stuart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:18MTLMax Pacioretty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:18WPGMark Stuart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Eller – Galchenyuk7:54
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Halpern – Armstrong – Prust5:45
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk2:42
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Pacioretty4:52
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Tinordi10:42
xG 1.35–0.63 (68%)attempts 23–9goals 2–1
- Gorges – Diaz14:01
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:39
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:39
xG 1.22–0.30 (80%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Gagnon – Wright7:12
xG 0.33–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 1–2
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov6:02
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Santorelli – Kane4:28
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Stuart13:05
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome12:51
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Meech – Byfuglien4:06
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).