Thu, Apr 25, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 13 | 08 | 119 |
| STL | 05 | 311 | 14 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:21STLRyan ReavesAssists: Adam Cracknell, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:58CGYSven BaertschiAssists: Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:00STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:27STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 2:10STLRyan ReavesAssists: Chris Porter, Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:40STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:48CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 14:33STLDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:16STLKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16CGYMichael Cammalleri: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00CGYMichael Cammalleri: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:42STLRyan Reaves: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:22CGYPaul Byron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:27CGYMax Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:37STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:37CGYTim Jackman: Instigator2 min
- P3 7:37CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:37CGYTim Jackman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:48STLVladimir Sobotka: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Backlund – Baertschi8:37
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak8:21
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones – Reinhart5:57
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Byron – Horak – Cervenka6:39
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Cundari12:47
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano13:32
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie2:09
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Cracknell – Reaves7:37
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz8:56
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Tarasenko8:59
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- McDonald – Sobotka – Stewart10:49
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Shattenkirk11:14
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Leopold – Russell2:02
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell12:03
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).