Fri, Apr 26, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 09 | 18 | 05 | 0 | 131 |
| BUF | 010 | 15 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:29BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 7:26NYIKeith AucoinAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 4. NYI Brad Boyes stopped
- 5. BUF Jochen Hecht stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:41BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 13:02NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00BUFJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00NYIEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:48NYIBrian Strait: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:42BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:42BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:03NYIMatt Carkner: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:03BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:03NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- OT 1:25BUFKevin Porter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:52
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner11:30
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas5:41
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares15:11
xG 0.42–0.76 (36%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic16:40
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Streit – Hickey3:32
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Scott – Foligno4:51
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Ennis – Flynn10:28
xG 0.17–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Grigorenko9:25
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Vanek – Porter – Flynn2:01
xG 0.01–0.05 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera17:26
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Pardy – Pysyk12:11
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Pardy – Weber2:26
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).