Fri, Apr 26, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 6, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 35 | 39 | 03 | 617 |
| MIN | 015 | 013 | 111 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27EDMCorey PotterAssists: Ryan Smyth, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:02EDMTaylor HallGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 18:38EDMCorey PotterAssists: Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 4:09EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Smyth, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 10:13EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–0
- P2 13:55EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall, Ladislav Smid · Deflected, 0.15 xG6–0
- P3 9:42MINMikko KoivuAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:02MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:18EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- P2 16:38EDMJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 14:11MINZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11MINZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:11MINMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11MINMike Rupp: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowell won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Belanger – Jones – Lander10:05
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Smyth – Smithson – Brown9:32
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hall – Yakupov13:28
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 8–21goals 3–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Paajarvi12:19
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Schultz2:41
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Potter – Schultz2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Fistric – Schultz4:03
xG 0.01–0.01 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle14:00
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 25–5goals 1–1
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Clutterbuck12:58
xG 0.65–0.14 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Dowell6:16
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Mitchell11:41
xG 0.33–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Spurgeon10:42
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon4:04
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner13:55
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).