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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 26, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Colorado Avalanche 5, Phoenix Coyotes 4 (SO)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.

PHX winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
COL3111709012528
PHX210110111060437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:17PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Paul Bissonnette · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:45PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:45COLStefan ElliottAssists: Matt Duchene, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:52COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: John Mitchell, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P1 17:52COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Matt Duchene, Tomas Vincour · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–2
  6. P2 15:11PHXRob KlinkhammerPPAssists: Boyd Gordon, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. P2 19:26COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P3 5:56PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Michael Stone, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
  2. 2. COL Matt Duchene scored
  3. 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  4. 4. COL PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:17COLJean-Sebastien Giguere: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  2. P1 12:42COLMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 13:14PHXShane Doan: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 16:01PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 13:55COLPatrick Bordeleau: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:20PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 1:44COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 1:44COLShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 1:44COLShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
  10. P3 1:44PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 4:08COLTomas Vincour: High sticking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 5:56COLChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 16:32PHXRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Gordon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLPHX
28Shots on goal37
2.6Expected goals3.5
51Shot attempts57
28Faceoffs won22
4Power plays6
24Penalty minutes10
30Hits23
11Blocked shots14
1Giveaways2
4Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. Kobasew – Stastny – McGinn9:26

    xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

  2. Bordeleau – Malone – Vincour4:40

    xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

  3. McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:01

    xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0

  4. Parenteau – Mitchell – Duchene10:40

    xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestO'Brien – Hunwick9:33

    xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0

  2. Hejda – Hunwick2:10

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0

  3. Barrie – Elliott2:05

    xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer11:05

    xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0

  2. Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker9:10

    xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0

  3. Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal10:46

    xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0

  4. Bissonnette – Chipchura – Conner6:16

    xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson10:25

    xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0

  2. Stone – Ekman-Larsson4:17

    xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  3. Klesla – Stone8:44

    xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.5 xGCOL 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #32 of 720 this seasonSwing 2.69 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.

PHX winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).