Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 211 | 18 | 428 |
| TOR | 16 | 01 | 010 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:36TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:01MTLLars EllerAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:19MTLAndrei MarkovGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 9:18MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lars Eller, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 2:25MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brandon Prust, Josh Gorges · Snap, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 7:53MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:08TORMichael Kostka: Interference2 min
- P1 14:57MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19MTLRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:21MTLMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P2 18:08MTLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:30TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:05TORFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:05TORFrazer McLaren: Charging2 min
- P3 3:05TORFrazer McLaren: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:05TORFrazer McLaren: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:39MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:02MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P3 13:32TORClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:32TORClarke MacArthur: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:32TORClarke MacArthur: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:15MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:35
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Moen – Prust – White5:16
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Pacioretty7:41
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec7:40
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban11:59
xG 0.83–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Subban2:04
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Diaz2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lupul – Kulemin – Colborne4:57
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Komarov – Kulemin2:33
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Komarov3:14
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–2
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri8:00
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Fraser10:18
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson8:08
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Kostka11:21
xG 0.02–0.65 (3%)attempts 6–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).