Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 115 | 011 | 00 | 234 |
| WSH | 012 | 09 | 212 | 14 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:49BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Rich Peverley, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 5:26WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 7:21WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:23WSHEric FehrPPGWGAssists: Mike Green, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:56WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P2 17:15BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:11BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:27BOSRich Peverley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P3 17:28BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:21WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:40BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille9:38
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Daugavins7:23
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:49
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic10:32
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – McQuaid11:02
xG 1.42–0.21 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Seidenberg18:46
xG 0.60–0.92 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Erat – Brouwer9:28
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:02
xG 0.57–0.37 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault11:39
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti7:56
xG 0.21–0.61 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner15:23
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Erskine – Carlson15:25
xG 0.58–0.62 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Hillen – Oleksy14:13
xG 0.42–1.16 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).