Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 16 | 05 | 120 |
| CBJ | 014 | 08 | 325 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:29NSHShea WeberAssists: David Legwand, Joonas Rask · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 10:09CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 15:12CBJJack JohnsonGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Dalton Prout · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:30CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Blake Comeau, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:40NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:40CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:14NSHHal Gill: Interference2 min
- P3 9:05NSHChris Mueller: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Clune – Smith11:07
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Mueller – Butler – Rask5:04
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Henderson – Forsberg10:57
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Bang9:24
xG 0.05–0.55 (9%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Blum12:25
xG 0.84–0.55 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi19:06
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Klein – Bartley15:39
xG 0.15–0.73 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Gaborik – Letestu10:30
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Comeau – Dubinsky – Atkinson11:32
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Anisimov3:38
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Anisimov6:31
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Erixon12:55
xG 0.63–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout18:42
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Wisniewski19:30
xG 0.71–0.96 (42%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).