Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 010 | 17 | 123 |
| STL | 29 | 112 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Andy McDonald, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 17:24STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: David Backes, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 8:39STLJaden SchwartzAssists: David Backes, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:23CHIBen SmithAssists: Jeremy Morin, Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:19STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:11CHISheldon Brookbank: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:39CHIRyan Stanton: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:09STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Shaw
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Hayes – Shaw6:52
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Bickell – Frolik – Shaw2:28
xG 0.10–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bickell – Morin – Shaw2:21
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Morin9:51
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLalonde – Stanton7:02
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Stanton3:52
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Oduya11:54
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Schwartz11:13
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- McDonald – Sobotka – Stewart12:35
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Porter – Cracknell – Reaves8:10
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Tarasenko9:07
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:50
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk19:24
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell15:22
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).