Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 210 | 19 | 212 | 531 |
| ANA | 117 | 16 | 123 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Shane Doan, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:21ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:36PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 0:14ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 6:46PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 7:43PHXRadim VrbataSHGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 9:33ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:58PHXAntoine VermetteENAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:10PHXLauri Korpikoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:05ANAPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:22PHXZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53PHXAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P3 12:32PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:39ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:09PHXKeith Yandle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Chipchura7:04
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker12:28
xG 0.53–0.72 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal12:57
xG 0.53–1.01 (34%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Gordon – Conner – Klinkhammer11:36
xG 0.55–1.04 (35%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Schlemko16:20
xG 1.13–1.20 (49%)attempts 18–20goals 3–0
- Klesla – Stone12:40
xG 0.41–0.79 (34%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:05
xG 0.53–1.03 (34%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Bonino – Maroon13:00
xG 1.55–0.15 (91%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:48
xG 0.82–0.52 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano10:30
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Steckel – Smith-Pelly8:50
xG 0.12–0.58 (17%)attempts 3–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Beauchemin8:48
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:32
xG 1.03–0.64 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Souray – Allen8:09
xG 0.80–0.58 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).