Tue, Oct 1, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 4, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 16 | 213 | 432 |
| CHI | 28 | 118 | 39 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06CHIBrandon BolligAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:42WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:06CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:30WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:32CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 0:59WSHMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 5:16WSHMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 7:55CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Michal Handzus, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 13:53CHIJohnny OduyaGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.01 xG4–5
- P3 19:22CHIMarian HossaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:01WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:06CHIBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:43CHIPatrick Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 13:07WSHConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11WSHMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:53CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:27CHIJoakim Nordstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Latta – Wilson4:53
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr10:13
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Laich – Grabovski – Brouwer10:31
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:59
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner14:53
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Hillen – Carrick9:09
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Erskine – Carlson14:26
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Bollig – Nordstrom6:44
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Handzus – Hossa – Sharp7:21
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw2:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bickell – Toews – Kane10:47
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:24
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:38
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Leddy13:14
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).