Tue, Oct 1, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 5, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 115 | 26 | 528 |
| EDM | 215 | 29 | 014 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21EDMLuke GazdicAssists: Will Acton · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:25WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:12WPGBryan LittleAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 18:08EDMBoyd GordonPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 3:38EDMAles HemskyAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 7:53EDMJesse JoensuuPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–4
- P2 16:18WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 11:06WPGJacob TroubaUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 14:58WPGMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Eric Tangradi, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:45EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 3:53EDMBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:51WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:31WPGPaul Postma: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44EDMRyan Smyth: Holding2 min
- P2 13:24EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:40EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:40WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:47EDMJesse Joensuu: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:16WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26WPGOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – Kane – Scheifele10:57
xG 1.44–0.46 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:58
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Frolik – Wright10:40
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Tangradi3:49
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:23
xG 0.96–0.33 (75%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Stuart – Postma9:37
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Trouba14:06
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Joensuu – Yakupov7:50
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Gazdic – Acton4:23
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Hall10:12
xG 0.18–0.61 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Perron – Eberle – Arcobello9:44
xG 0.37–0.98 (28%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Belov9:39
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Smid – Petry15:12
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Ference – Schultz14:13
xG 0.71–1.75 (29%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).