Wed, Oct 2, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 015 | 114 | 136 |
| COL | 114 | 39 | 26 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:39COLRyan O'ReillyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:38COLSteve DowniePPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 10:42COLJohn MitchellAssists: Tyson Barrie, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 17:20COLJamie McGinnAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 11:14COLJamie McGinnAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 13:42COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Steve Downie, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–6
- P3 19:53ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Nick Bonino, Mark Fistric · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:29COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:45ANADaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:08COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16ANADaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:56COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56ANABen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:17ANAMark Fistric: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:08COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:08ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:53ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:53COLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00COLPatrick Bordeleau: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 0:00ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLPatrick Bordeleau: Coach or manager on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Silfverberg10:05
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri6:17
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon5:25
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano9:47
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fistric4:53
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler6:38
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lovejoy2:27
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Bordeleau – McLeod7:05
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene12:11
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog7:46
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon12:25
xG 0.24–0.63 (28%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Guenin – Hejda2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson12:30
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit15:20
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).