Thu, Oct 3, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Calgary Flames 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 311 | 112 | 013 | 03 | 0 | 439 |
| WSH | 012 | 311 | 113 | 03 | 2 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18CGYDavid JonesAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:13CGYLee StempniakAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–0
- P1 16:22CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 7:30WSHConnor CarrickAssists: Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 9:05CGYLance BoumaAssists: Brian McGrattan, Ben Street · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 11:24WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 15:25WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 14:10WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Mikhail Grabovski scored
- 2. CGY Sven Baertschi stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 4. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:10WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:10CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:27CGYKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:00WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21WSHConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:00CGYDavid Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:59WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:00WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:32CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:38CGYTJ Galiardi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Glencross14:26
xG 1.38–0.44 (76%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bouma – Street4:08
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Jones – Baertschi – Monahan8:53
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hudler – Galiardi – Backlund10:24
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:52
xG 1.61–0.59 (73%)attempts 17–19goals 0–2
- Wideman – Russell11:59
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Butler12:35
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Grabovski – Brouwer10:37
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Erat – Beagle – Wilson3:47
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr9:16
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:36
xG 0.59–1.17 (34%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Green5:51
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carrick3:37
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson3:20
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).