Fri, Oct 4, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 17 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 426 |
| NJD | 17 | 113 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Andrei Loktionov · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 8:07NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:46NJDMichael RyderAssists: Bryce Salvador, Marek Zidlicky · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:43NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:01NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Michael Grabner, Matt Donovan · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 7:34NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Ryane Clowe, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Damien Brunner stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. NJD Ryane Clowe stopped
- 4. NYI Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 7. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 8. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 9. NJD Michael Ryder stopped
- 10. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 11. NJD Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 12. NYI Matt Moulson scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:05NJDDamien Brunner: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P3 5:26NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:04NJDRyan Carter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey8:21
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 3–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:58
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Nelson9:09
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares15:07
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Donovan14:06
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:53
xG 0.92–0.58 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:58
xG 0.28–0.98 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Zajac – Henrique12:48
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Loktionov – Brunner3:42
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Loktionov5:21
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter4:29
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky16:11
xG 0.98–0.73 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Greene – Harrold11:57
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold6:30
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).