Sat, Oct 5, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 015 | 06 | 126 |
| BOS | 114 | 213 | 110 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:49DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:36BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 7:58BOSJordan CaronAssists: Reilly Smith, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 12:17BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Torey Krug, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:56DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:45BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:13DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:33DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 10:29DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:07BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Weiss – Franzen9:17
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader9:04
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Andersson8:05
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Franzen2:46
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – DeKeyser14:46
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl2:25
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Quincey – Smith14:32
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Caron – Smith11:06
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:57
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand9:36
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:36
xG 0.19–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug10:15
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk10:40
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Chara – McQuaid2:55
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).