Sat, Oct 5, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 05 | 17 | 121 |
| PIT | 211 | 010 | 214 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 13:43PITChuck KobasewGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 10:09PITChris KunitzUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–3
- P3 15:06BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:15PITCraig AdamsENAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:03BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 8:57PITBrandon Sutter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:01PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:19BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Larsson – Flynn2:56
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Larsson4:05
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vanek – Stafford – Hodgson13:23
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Ott – Ennis – Grigorenko7:19
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk17:22
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Ristolainen14:03
xG 0.63–1.10 (36%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- McBain – Myers15:44
xG 0.03–1.09 (3%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby13:40
xG 1.26–0.20 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Kobasew – Sutter – Jeffrey8:01
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Bennett6:39
xG 0.33–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale5:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Niskanen16:19
xG 1.79–0.10 (95%)attempts 26–6goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Maatta12:34
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin18:38
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).