Sat, Oct 5, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 17 | 08 | 223 |
| VAN | 322 | 212 | 110 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58EDMJeff PetryAssists: David Perron, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 3:42VANBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:27VANDan HamhuisAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 18:45VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 7:21VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 13:56VANRyan KeslerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 15:23EDMBoyd GordonAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 18:15VANJason GarrisonENUnassisted · Snap, 0.41 xG2–6
Penalties (22)
- P1 1:02VANJannik Hansen: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:02EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:58VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:28EDMAnton Belov: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:48EDMAnton Belov: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:19VANRyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:19EDMWill Acton: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:19VANRyan Stanton: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:19EDMMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:19EDMMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:19EDMWill Acton: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:29EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:46VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:29VANJannik Hansen: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:29EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:36VANTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:36EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53EDMDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:32VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:32EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:45EDMDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:24VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Perron – Arcobello – Yakupov2:21
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Eberle – Arcobello4:39
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Gazdic – Acton4:42
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gordon – Joensuu – Eberle2:33
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz9:22
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Belov6:09
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen7:05
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Richardson – Santorelli – Weise5:34
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth6:02
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Tanev6:46
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa10:58
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Edler – Garrison5:35
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).