Sat, Oct 5, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Phoenix Coyotes 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 08 | 19 | 06 | 123 |
| SJS | 318 | 016 | 117 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46SJSTomas HertlAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:23SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Matt Irwin, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 12:30SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–3
- P2 16:47PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:35SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:34PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:54SJSAndrew Desjardins: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 10:35PHXKyle Chipchura: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:09PHXMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:52PHXZbynek Michalek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Ribeiro – Korpikoski – Lessio2:15
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Moss – Boedker2:52
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal4:31
xG 0.01–0.02 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Vermette – Moss – Lessio7:16
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Yandle3:56
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Rundblad2:19
xG 0.03–0.02 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Schlemko4:30
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy7:49
xG 0.95–0.05 (95%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture11:04
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto10:44
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin11:17
xG 1.09–0.06 (95%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:08
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Hannan – Demers10:49
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 98% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).