Sun, Oct 6, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 04 | 311 | 13 | 528 |
| CGY | 114 | 112 | 210 | 00 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47VANDavid BoothAssists: Jason Garrison, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:32CGYMark GiordanoAssists: David Jones, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:26CGYMikael BacklundAssists: TJ Galiardi, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 1:47CGYSean MonahanAssists: Lee Stempniak, Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 5:01VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 9:27VANMike SantorelliAssists: Henrik Sedin, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 16:06VANDale WeiseAssists: Brad Richardson, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:41CGYDavid JonesAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–4
- OT 3:17VANMike SantorelliGWGAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Stanton · Deflected, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:10CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:26VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 12:23VANHenrik Sedin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:23VANMike Santorelli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Street
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Higgins – Santorelli3:31
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Richardson – Booth – Weise4:12
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Richardson – Santorelli – Weise5:40
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Kesler – Hansen4:06
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev7:22
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 2–1
- Stanton – Tanev4:23
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Galiardi – Backlund16:06
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Baertschi – Monahan10:20
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Jones – Glencross – Street12:40
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Colborne – Bouma5:33
xG 0.07–0.57 (12%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell18:11
xG 1.36–1.04 (57%)attempts 23–19goals 1–2
- Giordano – Brodie17:53
xG 0.72–0.90 (44%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Butler11:25
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).