Mon, Oct 7, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 27 | 16 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 425 |
| EDM | 08 | 03 | 414 | 02 | 2 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:01NJDDamien BrunnerPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 4:34NJDMichael RyderUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 5:43EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: David Perron, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 9:28EDMAndrew FerenceAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:47EDMDavid PerronAssists: Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:30EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 19:06NJDPatrik EliasSHAssists: Damien Brunner, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. NJD Damien Brunner stopped
- 3. EDM David Perron scored
- 4. NJD Ryane Clowe stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:41EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:28EDMWill Acton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:32NJDSteve Bernier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:19NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min
- P2 4:59NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:59EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:23EDMLuke Gazdic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:19NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Zajac – Henrique9:54
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:50
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Zubrus10:28
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Clowe – Loktionov – Brunner10:26
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky15:26
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson13:59
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold12:29
xG 0.76–0.83 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:10
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Perron – Eberle – Arcobello2:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins2:32
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Arcobello – Yakupov2:57
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz17:31
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Schultz – Smid11:53
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Petry – Belov14:40
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).