Tue, Oct 8, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 113 | 09 | 134 |
| PHI | 28 | 09 | 013 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 7:31PHIBraydon CoburnGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 19:53FLABrad BoyesAssists: Brian Campbell, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:51FLAScott Gomez: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 7:58PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P2 2:56FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 13:33PHIAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:00FLABrian Campbell: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:48PHIJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:48PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:48PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:48FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:48PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:01FLAErik Gudbranson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:01FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding5 min
- P3 10:01FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:01PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23FLARyan Whitney: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Versteeg – Huberdeau7:57
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Matthias – Winchester5:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Fleischmann – Barkov8:29
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Gomez – Versteeg – Huberdeau2:39
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert9:44
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov9:19
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Whitney – Gudbranson9:46
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Voracek – Schenn8:05
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier3:22
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Talbot – Read – Couturier7:35
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo4:39
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Meszaros11:16
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann10:52
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Timonen – Schenn9:33
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).