Tue, Oct 8, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 2, San Jose Sharks 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 08 | 15 | 220 |
| SJS | 215 | 423 | 39 | 947 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 4:23SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicSHAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 7:56SJSDan BoyleAssists: Matt Nieto, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 8:16SJSMatt NietoGWGAssists: Tommy Wingels, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 9:19SJSTomas HertlAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 9:39SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Matt Irwin · Slap, 0.57 xG1–5
- P2 12:32SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P3 8:22NYRDerek DorsettAssists: Brian Boyle, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 9:02SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Jason Demers, Tyler Kennedy · Slap, 0.37 xG2–7
- P3 12:05SJSTomas HertlAssists: Jason Demers, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–8
- P3 15:53SJSJustin BraunPPAssists: Matt Nieto, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–9
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:32SJSBrad Stuart: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 3:03SJSMatt Nieto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:11SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:42NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42NYRBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:22NYRArron Asham: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Moore – Dorsett3:43
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Brassard4:06
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Callahan5:02
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Moore16:20
xG 1.18–1.08 (52%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi2:10
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Wingels – Nieto10:27
xG 1.41–0.04 (97%)attempts 24–4goals 2–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture12:38
xG 1.65–0.54 (75%)attempts 26–14goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy13:18
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:30
xG 1.32–0.26 (83%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Irwin10:52
xG 1.44–0.68 (68%)attempts 22–10goals 2–1
- Stuart – Demers9:29
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).