Wed, Oct 9, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 19 | 07 | 228 |
| STL | 113 | 114 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:01CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 8:37STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 9:16CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 19:38STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:59STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:59CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:54STLMaxim Lapierre: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:01STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:31CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:10STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10CHIBryan Bickell: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Bollig – Nordstrom6:53
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw3:05
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Hossa – Sharp9:35
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Hayes – Shaw – Saad9:22
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook19:13
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson19:02
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:11
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart5:44
xG 0.29–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart4:07
xG 0.11–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves2:00
xG 0.04–0.01 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak15:56
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk13:00
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo20:01
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).