Thu, Oct 10, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 2, Boston Bruins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 06 | 110 | 230 |
| BOS | 010 | 015 | 014 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:20COLRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Andre Benoit, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 19:34COLMatt DucheneENAssists: Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–0
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:56COLJamie McGinn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:22COLTyson Barrie: Holding2 min
- P1 16:56BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:56COLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:54BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12BOSJohnny Boychuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:15COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:15BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:11BOSJordan Caron: Holding2 min
- P2 19:09BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:09BOSJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09COLPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:20COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:20BOSLoui Eriksson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon6:53
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog10:32
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – McLeod5:00
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene12:31
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie7:45
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:19
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Guenin – Hejda2:35
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic8:36
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:29
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand9:50
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Iginla – Paille – Krejci2:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton12:19
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton3:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk10:24
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).