Thu, Oct 10, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 314 | 115 | 04 | 433 |
| BUF | 111 | 08 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Marian Gaborik, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 8:50BUFThomas VanekAssists: Steve Ott, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:35CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 18:48CBJMarian GaborikAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 2:11CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: David Savard, Marian Gaborik · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:10BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:10CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:10BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:10CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:32BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:32BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:36BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:14BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 16:14BUFMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:00CBJBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen10:33
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu8:51
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Anisimov – Calvert10:38
xG 0.05–0.27 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Atkinson8:51
xG 0.90–1.14 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard14:18
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Prout13:48
xG 0.33–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray13:06
xG 0.64–0.87 (43%)attempts 6–17goals 3–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Vanek – Hodgson14:53
xG 1.22–0.54 (69%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- McCormick – Porter – Kaleta5:47
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno10:04
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons7:17
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ristolainen3:24
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- McBain – Ristolainen5:46
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk12:48
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).