Thu, Oct 10, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 212 | 115 | 336 |
| WSH | 114 | 15 | 013 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Eric Fehr, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 12:58CARElias LindholmAssists: Jeff Skinner, Ryan Murphy · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:52WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Steve Oleksy, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:14CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 6:59CARNathan GerbeGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:56WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:38WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:38CARBrett Sutter: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:19CARAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:17WSHMikhail Grabovski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:02CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:03CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35WSHJoel Ward: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
- P2 16:09WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07WSHSteve Oleksy: Holding2 min
- P2 19:59CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59CARAlexander Semin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:34CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Sutter – Nash – Bowman2:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:38
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Nash – Skinner4:13
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Bowman – Lindholm3:56
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk14:37
xG 0.98–0.61 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore13:23
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Harrison – Murphy7:38
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr7:32
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Latta – Wilson5:01
xG 0.11–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:01
xG 0.74–0.70 (52%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Laich – Grabovski – Brouwer9:08
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner12:52
xG 0.93–0.34 (73%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Urbom – Oleksy12:34
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson11:03
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).