Thu, Oct 10, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Nashville Predators 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 29 | 211 | 426 |
| NSH | 08 | 017 | 011 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:41TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 19:51TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 16:18TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 16:59TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:17TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:18NSHMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:32TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:38TORDave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:54NSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:54TORDavid Broll: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:18NSHMike Fisher: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 13:18NSHMike Fisher: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:29
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Broll8:01
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- McClement – Lupul – Kadri2:59
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Ashton5:04
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Rielly13:24
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson16:47
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner11:49
xG 0.11–0.41 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gaustad – Clune7:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:00
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith9:00
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Legwand – Nystrom – Forsberg9:25
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Ellis9:31
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Jones17:58
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Klein – Ekholm14:28
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).