Thu, Oct 10, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 28 | 27 | 427 |
| EDM | 09 | 110 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:28EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 9:24MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:05MTLBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Travis Moen, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P3 12:15MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:42MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Daniel Brière, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:26MTLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:41MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:24EDMNail Yakupov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:05EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:05MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35EDMNick Schultz: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:33MTLLars Eller: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Prust – Bournival5:04
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:19
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Gionta – Bourque – Desharnais10:12
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Brière – Pacioretty – Eller12:11
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz15:50
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:53
xG 0.91–0.83 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Beaulieu9:38
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Perron – Arcobello5:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Arcobello4:37
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:40
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Perron – Nugent-Hopkins4:39
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Smid10:22
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Petry – Belov12:51
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz15:25
xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).