Fri, Oct 11, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 112 | 114 | 05 | 231 |
| PHI | 016 | 111 | 010 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Tim Kennedy, Paul Bissonnette · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 17:29PHIMax TalbotAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Sean Couturier · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:47PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:44PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
- P1 9:17PHXMichael Stone: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:33PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P1 14:33PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:29PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 5:39PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P2 10:14PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:01PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
- P2 19:34PHIZac Rinaldo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:13PHIZac Rinaldo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:54PHXRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:12PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P3 18:12PHIAndrej Meszaros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:12PHIAndrej Meszaros: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski2:08
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Moss – Chipchura – Korpikoski8:47
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker10:25
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Vrbata – Hanzal11:18
xG 0.25–0.60 (30%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Morris – Yandle12:22
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:46
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Klesla – Stone12:41
xG 0.29–0.66 (30%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Couturier3:40
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read3:52
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Simmonds2:54
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Read – Couturier3:30
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann11:59
xG 1.12–0.27 (81%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn2:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn9:20
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).