Fri, Oct 11, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 013 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 237 |
| CAR | 09 | 08 | 110 | 01 | 0 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:26LAKDwight KingSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 14:06CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.34 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 2. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 3. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 4. LAK Jeff Carter scored
- 5. CAR Nathan Gerbe stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:39LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:33CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:30LAKRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:04CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P3 3:21LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:18LAKTrevor Lewis: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:44LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:22CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar10:42
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Carcillo8:50
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – King – Nolan7:33
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Frattin – Clifford9:01
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov14:59
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty15:01
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez12:06
xG 0.17–0.53 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Bowman – Skinner4:53
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Skinner – Lindholm2:53
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Westgarth – Bowman5:25
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:38
xG 0.20–0.70 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Bellemore15:26
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Harrison13:16
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk14:23
xG 0.53–1.18 (31%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).