Fri, Oct 11, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 110 | 04 | 221 |
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Damien Brunner, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 5:37CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:03NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:41CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 17:17CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Sven Baertschi, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:58NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P1 11:44CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:51NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:49NJDMichael Ryder: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 18:41CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Street
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Elias – Zubrus11:57
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Olesz – Gionta – Josefson3:29
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Zajac – Brunner9:00
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Olesz – Zajac – Brunner2:48
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson17:32
xG 1.14–0.60 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky15:15
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Harrold10:44
xG 0.12–0.56 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Baertschi – Monahan8:24
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Galiardi – Backlund – Bouma9:07
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Backlund – Bouma2:53
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Bouma – Street2:09
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell18:28
xG 0.72–0.53 (58%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Wideman – Brodie2:29
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie15:09
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).