Sat, Oct 12, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 010 | 113 | 129 |
| CHI | 120 | 117 | 03 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26CHIBen SmithAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 19:35CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 11:49BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:40BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:37BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:05CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:10BUFSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:37CHIBrandon Bollig: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:37BUFSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:18CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P2 6:59BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Vanek – Hodgson12:19
xG 1.27–0.68 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno3:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stafford – Girgensons – Grigorenko5:55
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ennis – Foligno – Flynn5:51
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Pysyk14:18
xG 1.13–0.83 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:23
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Myers13:26
xG 0.35–0.47 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Saad5:45
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Bollig7:54
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kruger8:41
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bickell – Nordstrom – Shaw2:51
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy11:18
xG 0.72–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:24
xG 0.63–0.81 (44%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:51
xG 0.68–1.10 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).