Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 113 | 15 | 329 |
| STL | 112 | 35 | 117 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 19:54NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 5:11STLDavid BackesAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:44STLDerek RoyPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:56NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 18:27STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 2:54NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 10:42STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Derek Roy · Snap, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:55STLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P1 14:01NYRDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:30NYRJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P1 17:55STLT.J. Oshie: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:55STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:55NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00STLBarret Jackman: Charging2 min
- P2 4:43NYRDerek Dorsett: Holding2 min
- P2 4:43STLMaxim Lapierre: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:30STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:08NYRJustin Falk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:51STLDerek Roy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36NYRDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:40NYRAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Moore – Dorsett6:07
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pouliot – Fast7:09
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Stepan – Zuccarello6:02
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Brassard9:36
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh12:44
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Moore8:11
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi10:40
xG 0.84–0.82 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:14
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–2goals 2–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart7:05
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Sobotka – Reaves7:14
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:55
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:45
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Leopold – Shattenkirk12:44
xG 0.59–0.49 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak14:22
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).