Sun, Oct 13, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 215 | 28 | 532 |
| CAR | 111 | 212 | 011 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59PHXMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Shane Doan, Derek Morris · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:07CAREric StaalUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:11CARRiley NashAssists: Ryan Murphy, Jay Harrison · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:34PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 15:58PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Mike Ribeiro, David Moss · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 19:03CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 0:22PHXRob KlinkhammerGWGAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 7:11PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:31CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:02CARDrayson Bowman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:39PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:08PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P1 18:44PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:08PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:30PHXRob Klinkhammer: Holding2 min
- P2 12:34PHXZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:36PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:52PHXDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:52CARTuomo Ruutu: Diving2 min
- P3 6:27CARAndrej Sekera: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:31CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P3 10:31PHXLauri Korpikoski: Diving2 min
- P3 19:48PHXDavid Moss: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Kennedy – Klinkhammer2:29
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Korpikoski2:37
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker5:04
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Moss – Chipchura – Korpikoski3:39
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone8:16
xG 0.88–0.06 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle13:46
xG 0.91–0.46 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stone2:40
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Nash – Skinner8:40
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal9:07
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty7:16
xG 0.09–0.53 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Sutter – Bowman4:07
xG 0.20–0.66 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Harrison – Faulk2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy2:50
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk12:26
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).