Sun, Oct 13, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 07 | 012 | 131 |
| ANA | 224 | 221 | 011 | 456 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27ANACorey PerryAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:06ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 19:12OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:18ANACorey PerryAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 15:28ANANick BoninoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:33OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01OTTMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:08OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:51OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:28ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference2 min
- P3 6:19OTTClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P3 14:19OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:46
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith2:31
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Smith3:28
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Ryan – Turris2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Cowen4:56
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson4:13
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- Phillips – Corvo5:17
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Palmieri – Etem9:41
xG 0.95–0.29 (77%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:21
xG 0.84–0.71 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Selanne – Perreault – Silfverberg11:52
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon9:24
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm14:03
xG 1.29–0.78 (62%)attempts 20–24goals 4–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:01
xG 0.95–0.68 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen13:49
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).