Mon, Oct 14, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 09 | 111 | 230 |
| WSH | 13 | 38 | 09 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48EDMBoyd GordonAssists: Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:41WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 10:06WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:18WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 14:01WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 18:18EDMWill ActonAssists: Jeff Petry, David Perron · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 19:19WSHJason Chimera: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:05WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:47EDMLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:47EDMMark Arcobello: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:54WSHAlexander Urbom: Holding2 min
- P3 1:38EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:19WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:19WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:19EDMLuke Gazdic: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:19EDMMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:19WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Joensuu – Perron8:08
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Arcobello9:08
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:54
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Brown – Gazdic – Acton5:52
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz14:27
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry15:19
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Schultz – Belov12:53
xG 0.44–0.98 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Beagle – Wilson7:03
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr8:39
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:53
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Laich – Grabovski – Brouwer10:30
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksy – Schmidt11:38
xG 1.08–0.39 (74%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Carlson – Urbom13:02
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Carlson – Schmidt2:33
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).