Tue, Oct 15, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 215 | 03 | 222 |
| PIT | 115 | 19 | 14 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:39EDMAles HemskyAssists: David Perron, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 9:40PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 15:59EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Mark Arcobello · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 7:20PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:56EDMRyan Smyth: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 18:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:35PITPaul Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10EDMLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:52EDMAndrew Ference: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:32PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Arcobello13:57
xG 0.82–0.56 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Jones – Brown – Acton3:33
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon10:18
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov10:53
xG 0.15–0.41 (26%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ference – Schultz12:51
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry2:17
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Belov15:09
xG 0.20–0.30 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:05
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Malkin10:23
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale5:50
xG 0.10–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sutter – Jeffrey – Zolnierczyk7:26
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin13:21
xG 0.39–0.00 (99%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Niskanen14:05
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Orpik3:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).